The Bank of Canada announced on October 19^th, 2016 that it was keeping its trend-setting target overnight lending rate at 0.5 per cent.

The announcement and accompanying Monetary Policy Report (MPR) indicated that:

• Canadian economic growth will be lower than previously expected, “due in large part to slower near-term housing resale activity and a lower [growth] trajectory for exports.”
• The economy is now on track to “[return] to full capacity around mid-2018,” which is “materially later than Bank had anticipated in July.”
• Recently tightened mortgage regulations...

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The global economy is expected to regain momentum in the second half of this year and through 2017 and 2018. After a weak first half, the US economy in particular is strengthening: solid consumption is being underpinned by strong employment growth and robust consumer confidence. However, because of elevated uncertainty, US business investment is on a lower track than expected.

Looking through the choppiness...

The decline in home sales in Vancouver which seems to have been exacerbated by the tax on foreign buyers, does not reflect the wider provincial housing market.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association says that, although there are other cities showing declining sales, there are also areas showing continued growth.

"Housing demand in the province continued to trend lower in September," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "While Vancouver, Fraser Valley and the North experienced year-over-year declines last month, the rest of the province posted an increase in the number of residential tr...

Forget all the housing crash talk says a new report that suggests prices acceleration in Canada’s housing market will slow down without any hard landing.

Moody’s Analytics, which used the Brookfield RPS house price index for its models, maintains that prices in Canada will slow down as some markets, especially Vancouver and Toronto, see homes become overvalued and less affordable while international capital inflows slow down.

“We are predicting that the housing market will slow down, in terms of house price growth, significantly,” said Andrew Carbacho-Burgos, an economist...

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 7,591 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September, down 11.2 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $4.45 billion in September, down 14.1 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $585,844, a decline of 3.2 per cent compared to the same month last year.

“Housing demand in the province continued to trend lower in September,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA...

According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales edged slightly higher in September 2016 compared to August.

Highlights:

• National home sales edged up 0.8% from August to September.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in September rose 4.2% year-over-year (y-o-y).
• The number of newly listed homes ticked up 0.5% from August to September.
• The MLS^® Home Price Index (HPI) in September was up 14.4% y-o-y.
• The national average sale price climbed 9.5% y-o-y.

The number of homes trading hands via Canadian MLS^® Systems rose...

The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 199,503 units in September compared to 196,465 in August, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“Housing starts were on an upward trend in September, as residential construction increased across the country with the exception of Ontario, where the multiples segment softened to levels that are more consistent with household formation," said Bob Dugan, CMHC Chief Economist. “Quebec saw the largest gain...

Metro Vancouver* home sales dipped below the 10- year monthly sales average last month. This is the first time this has occurred in the region since May 2014.

Metro Vancouver home sales totalled 2,253 in September 2016, a decrease of 32.6 per cent from the 3,345 sales recorded in September 2015 and a decrease of 9.5 per cent compared to August 2016 when 2,489 homes sold. 

Last month’s sales were 9.6 per cent below the 10-year sales average for the month.

“Supply and demand conditions differ today depending on property type,” Dan Morrison, REBGV president...

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According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales declined for a fourth consecutive month in August 2016.

Highlights:

• National home sales fell 3.1% from July to August.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 10.2% above August 2015.
• The number of newly listed homes declined 2.7% from July to August.
• The MLS^® Home Price Index (HPI) rose 14.7% year-over-year in August.
• The national average sale price climbed 5.4% in August from one year ago.

The number of homes trading hands via Canadian MLS^® Systems fell by 3.1...

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 8,945 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August, up 1.5 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $5.1 billion in August, down 6.7 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $569,393, a decline of 8.1 per cent compared to the same month last year. 

“Strong housing demand across most regions of the province offset slowing home sales in Vancouver last month,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA...

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The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 195,640 units in August compared to 201,379 in July, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

"Housing starts declined in August, as construction of multi-unit dwellings slowed in most regions, led by lower activity in Alberta and Manitoba” said Bob Dugan, CMHC Chief Economist. "However, housing market activity levels remain elevated and this decline in starts is the market's response to increasing levels...

The Bank of Canada announced on September 7^th, 2016 that it was keeping its trend-setting target overnight lending rate at 0.5 per cent.

The Bank acknowledged that inflation risks were “tilted more to the downside since July” when it published its most recent economic forecast. Normally, this would signal that it may lower interest rates in the near future.

However, the Bank also said it remains concerned about rising mortgage debt, throwing cold water on the idea that it might lower rates for fear of fueling further household debt.

The big picture for the Bank’s key policy interest...

For the second straight month, home buyer demand in Metro Vancouver* moved off of the record-breaking pace seen earlier this year and returned to more typical levels.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Metro Vancouver totalled 2,489 in August 2016, a decline of 26 per cent compared to the 3,362 sales in August 2015; 10.2 per cent less than the 2,771 sales in August 2014; and one per cent less than the 2,514 sales in August 2013. August 2016 sales also represent a 22.8 per cent decline compared to last month...

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) increased 1.7 index points in the second quarter of 2016, propelled higher by strong growth in the BC economy. The CLI index rose to a new high of 122.2, up 2.2 per cent compared to the second quarter of 2015.

“The recent uptrend in the CLI is reflective of a strong underlying economy and accelerated employment growth,” said BCREA Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “The CLI was further boosted by a rebound in financial markets that were previously dragging the index lower.”

All components of the CLI...

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2016 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to climb 10.4 per cent to a record 113,000 units this year, eclipsing the previous record of 106,310 units in 2005. Housing demand is expected to moderate next year, with home sales declining nearly 8 per cent to 104,400 units. However, housing demand is expected to remain well above the ten-year average of 85,000 unit sales.

“The introduction of a 15 per cent tax on foreign...